Posts Tagged ‘portfolio

03
Oct
11

Paper: Equity Yields

Equity Yields

Abstract
We study a new data set of prices of traded dividends with maturities up to 10 years across three world regions: the US, Europe, and Japan. We use these asset prices to construct equity yields, analogous to bond yields. We decompose these yields to obtain a term structure of expected dividend growth rates and a term structure of risk premia, which allows us to decompose the equity risk premium by maturity. We find that both expected dividend growth rates and risk premia exhibit substantial variation over time, particularly for short maturities. In addition to predicting dividend growth, equity yields help predict other measures of economic growth such as consumption growth. We relate the dynamics of growth expectations to recent events such as the financial crisis and the earthquake in Japan.

Link al Paper

07
Sep
11

Paper: Diversificación, rebalanceo como soluciones…

Diversification Return, Portfolio Rebalancing, and the Commodity Return Puzzle

Diversification return is an incremental return earned by a rebalanced portfolio of assets. The diversification return of a rebalanced portfolio is often incorrectly ascribed to a reduction in variance. We argue that the underlying source of the diversification return is the rebalancing, which forces the investor to sell assets that have appreciated in relative value and buy assets that have declined in relative value, as measured by their weights in the portfolio. In contrast, the incremental return of a buy-and-hold portfolio is driven by the fact that the assets that perform the best become a greater fraction of the portfolio. We use these results to resolve two puzzles associated with the Gorton and Rouwenhorst index of commodity futures, and thereby obtain a clear understanding of the source of the return of that index. Diversification return can be a significant source of return for any rebalanced portfolio of volatile assets.

Link al Paper

19
May
11

Invertir en Volatilidad

Schaeffers Research tiene un post donde analiza un trabajo de Morningstar donde compara dos portfolios uno con equity y cash y otro que tiene esos componentes más derivados del VIX. Para concluir con:

Well, that’s a downer. I think the point would be not to leverage, and accept the lower return/lower risk. Or, simply allocate less to volatility.

But truthfully, it’s more about the concepts here than actually replicating this portfolio. Remember — it’s all simulated to begin with. We only know how these actual volatility derivatives behaved in the last five years; the simulations have their own margins of error.

Basically, this all tells me that properly allocated and relatively frequently hedged VXZ provides a decent portfolio hedge over time.

22
Apr
11

Combo: Minima Varianza + R

Quantivity esta generando muy buen contenido a lo loco! Nada mejor que redireccionarlo. La tematica: portfolios de minima varianza y rotación sectorial. Hasta aca nada superlativo, el premio esta en los codigos de R!

Minimum Variance Portfolios

Minimum Variance Sector Rotation

13
Apr
11

Refutando la Teoría de Portfolio

Siempre es un lujo redireccionar los post de Quantivity, en esta ocación hay un deleite de papers para el refute de la Teoría de Portfolio.

Despite intellectual tradition, the mountain of contrary evidence is simply too overwhelming:

  • Decades of counterexamples to CAPM
  • Increasing cross-asset correlations worldwide, dramatically reducing diversification efficacy
  • Two market bubbles, amply validating behavioral finance to those working in tech and finance
  • Quantification across many marketplaces, rapidly accelerating since 2007
  • Rise of “volatility” as a proposed asset class, going back to Derman in 2003

 

23
Feb
11

Screening de Acciones (bis)

Empirical Finance Blog lanzo un producto gratuito (por lo menos en su version beta) para hacer screening.


14
Nov
10

Frase del Día: Portfolio a la medida

“One of the biggest disservices at investor can do to their portfolio is to act on a timeframe that is not consistent with their objectives.”

(Fuente: Mabane Faber)




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"It is hard to be finite upon an infinite subject, and all subjects are infinite." Herman Melville

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