Especuladores y Commodities

En sintonia con el deseo de nuevas regulaciones,  esta instalada la discusión sobre el impacto de los “especuladores” en el mercado de commodities (futuros), especialmente los mercados de energía (petroleo, gas). Soluciones como la de limitar las posiciones son propuestas. Les dejo un trabajo del 2008 de la Commodity Futures Trading Commission
We identify and explain a structural change in the relation between crude oil futures prices across contract maturities. As recently as 2001, near- and long-dated futures were priced as though traded in segmented markets. In 2002, however, the prices of one-year futures started to move more in sync with the price of the nearby contract. Since mid-2004, the prices of both the one-year-out and the two-year-out futures have been cointegrated with the nearby price. We link this transformation to changes in fundamentals, as well as to sea changes in the maturity structure and trader composition of futures market activity. In particular, we utilize a unique dataset of individual trader positions in exchange-traded crude oil options and futures to show that increased market activity by commodity swap dealers, and by hedge funds and other financial traders, has helped link crude oil futures prices at different maturities.

Link al Paper.

Por ultimo, una nota de 24/7 Wall St sobre el lanzamiento de 2 ETFs que siguen el platino y paladio, y el posible impacto de estos derivados  sobre sus respectivos subyacentes:

If you have ever wondered just how much exchange traded funds and exchange traded notes can run a market, you can forget about wondering how much the SPDR Gold Shares (NYSE: GLD) has helped to run gold prices higher.  Some will say it has, and some will try to dispute this notion.  While being able to speculate on any commodity and market is good, there is always a question of how much speculation by participants not tied at all to the underlying markets should be allowed.  ETF Securities is soon to launch two ETF products: one for platinum and one for palladium.  These markets are not as large as the gold market, so floods of money in and out of these could make for volatile underlying markets.


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