27
Jun
10

Hipotecas, convexidad negativa y una critica…

Desde Canada, Nick Rowe tiene un interesante post sobre como las hipotecas a 30 años a tasa fija en Estados Unidos no tienen razon de ser. Tanto desde el que la pide, como del que la ofrece (bancos).

(…)

First off, American 30-year fixed rate mortgages aren’t 30-year and aren’t fixed rate. The term is variable, and the rate is variable. That’s because they are “open” mortgages, rather than “closed” mortgages. A 30-year 6% closed mortgage really does have a fixed term and a fixed rate. You know exactly how much you will be paying per month for the next 30 years. An open mortgage means you have the option to pay off or refinance that mortgage at any time over the next 30 years. And you will of course exercise that option at any time when the market interest rate for the remaining term falls below the rate you are currently paying.

(…)

If the option were free, of course you would want an open mortgage. You can’t lose. But, of course, there must be someone taking the other side of the bet. The lender won’t sell you that option for free. You have to pay for it, and you pay for it in higher interest rates.

The longer the remaining term to maturity of the mortgage, the greater the chance that market rates will fall, the more that option is worth, and the higher the interest rate premium you would pay to buy that option. If you only have a couple of months left on the mortgage, interest rates won’t move very far in that short time, so an open mortgage will have only a slightly higher interest rate than a closed mortgage. So even if interest rates on closed mortgages have no trend up or down as the remaining term to maturity shortens over time, interest rates on open mortgages will tend to trend down as the remaining term to maturity shortens. So the option to refinance will probably be exercised again and again.

It’s equally weird and stupid from the lender’s point of view. Lenders aren’t always risk-neutral; they care about interest rate risk and liquidity risk. (…) Why would you ever agree to write a one way bet that you lose if interest rates fall? Falling interest rates are the one thing that retirees and pension plans want to insure against, not bet that they won’t happen! It’s really stupid.

Localice esta nota via un post RortyBomb sobre el tema. Del mismo rescato la siguiente frase:

The idea of home ownership for a broad class of people as a mechanism for building equity and wealth, without government intervention, doesn’t exist


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