29
Sep
10

Paper: Black Swans y el deseo de reconocerlos

Is It So Bad that We Cannot Recognize Black Swans?

Abstract:
Analyzing the reasons of financial crises in “The Black Swans,” N.N. Taleb concludes that modern economic models badly describe reality for they are not able to forecast such crises in advance.
We tried to present processes on stock exchange as two random processes one of which happens rather often (regular regime) and the other one – rather rare. Our answer is that if regular processes are correctly recognized with the probability a bit higher than 1/2, this allows to get positive average gain. We believe that this very phenomenon lies in the basis of unwillingness of people to expect crises permanently and to try recognizing them.

Link al Paper


Advertisements

0 Responses to “Paper: Black Swans y el deseo de reconocerlos”



  1. Leave a Comment

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s


Fun & Finance

Vimeo

Fun & Finance Rollover

Contacto

informes@qfclub.com.ar
"It is hard to be finite upon an infinite subject, and all subjects are infinite." Herman Melville

Powered by

September 2010
M T W T F S S
« Aug   Oct »
 12345
6789101112
13141516171819
20212223242526
27282930  

Categorias

Archivo

Ingrese su dirección de email para suscribirse a este blog y recibir las notificaciones de nuevos posts via email

Join 35 other followers

Web Analytics Clicky

%d bloggers like this: