*(Fuente: Bespoke Investment Group)*

## Posts Tagged ‘acciones

### Tabla du Jour: Sin palabras…

### Paper: Equity Yields

**Equity Yields**

**Abstract**

We study a new data set of prices of traded dividends with maturities up to 10 years across three world regions: the US, Europe, and Japan. We use these asset prices to construct equity yields, analogous to bond yields. We decompose these yields to obtain a term structure of expected dividend growth rates and a term structure of risk premia, which allows us to decompose the equity risk premium by maturity. We find that both expected dividend growth rates and risk premia exhibit substantial variation over time, particularly for short maturities. In addition to predicting dividend growth, equity yields help predict other measures of economic growth such as consumption growth. We relate the dynamics of growth expectations to recent events such as the financial crisis and the earthquake in Japan.

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**Diversification Return, Portfolio Rebalancing, and the Commodity Return Puzzle**

Diversification return is an incremental return earned by a rebalanced portfolio of assets. The diversification return of a rebalanced portfolio is often incorrectly ascribed to a reduction in variance. We argue that the underlying source of the diversification return is the rebalancing, which forces the investor to sell assets that have appreciated in relative value and buy assets that have declined in relative value, as measured by their weights in the portfolio. In contrast, the incremental return of a buy-and-hold portfolio is driven by the fact that the assets that perform the best become a greater fraction of the portfolio. We use these results to resolve two puzzles associated with the Gorton and Rouwenhorst index of commodity futures, and thereby obtain a clear understanding of the source of the return of that index. Diversification return can be a significant source of return for any rebalanced portfolio of volatile assets.

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En este capítulo -que introduce la tematica de acciones-, Hector le cuenta a Gaston como fue el año 2010 para el MERVAL, cuales fueron las estrellas de ese año. Y lo mas importante, como empezar a ver si una accion esta barata.

### Paper: Volatilidad y largo plazo

**Are Stocks Really Less Volatile in the Long Run?**

ABSTRACT

According to conventional wisdom, annualized volatility of stock returns is lower over long horizons than over short horizons, due to mean reversion induced by return predictability. In contrast,we ﬁnd that stocks are substantially more volatile over long horizons from an investor’s perspective. This perspective recognizes that parameters are uncertain, even with two centuries of data, and that observable predictors imperfectly deliver the conditional expected return. Mean reversion contributes strongly to reducing long-horizon variance, but it is more than offset by various uncertainties faced by the investor, especially uncertainty about the expected return. The same uncertainties reduce desired stock allocations of long-horizon investors contemplating target-datefunds.

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*(Fuente: Felix Salmon)*

**The fine structure of spectral properties for random correlation matrices: an application to financial markets**

**Abstract**

We study some properties of eigenvalue spectra of financial correlation matrices. In particular, we investigate the nature of the large eigenvalue bulks which are observed empirically, and which have often been regarded as a consequence of the supposedly large amount of noise contained in financial data. We challenge this common knowledge by acting on the empirical correlation matrices of two data sets with a filtering procedure which highlights some of the cluster structure they contain, and we analyze the consequences of such filtering on eigenvalue spectra. We show that empirically observed eigenvalue bulks emerge as superpositions of smaller structures, which in turn emerge as a consequence of cross-correlations between stocks. We interpret and corroborate these findings in terms of factor models, and and we compare empirical spectra to those predicted by Random Matrix Theory for such models.

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