Posts Tagged ‘diversificación

07
Sep
11

Paper: Diversificación, rebalanceo como soluciones…

Diversification Return, Portfolio Rebalancing, and the Commodity Return Puzzle

Diversification return is an incremental return earned by a rebalanced portfolio of assets. The diversification return of a rebalanced portfolio is often incorrectly ascribed to a reduction in variance. We argue that the underlying source of the diversification return is the rebalancing, which forces the investor to sell assets that have appreciated in relative value and buy assets that have declined in relative value, as measured by their weights in the portfolio. In contrast, the incremental return of a buy-and-hold portfolio is driven by the fact that the assets that perform the best become a greater fraction of the portfolio. We use these results to resolve two puzzles associated with the Gorton and Rouwenhorst index of commodity futures, and thereby obtain a clear understanding of the source of the return of that index. Diversification return can be a significant source of return for any rebalanced portfolio of volatile assets.

Link al Paper

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30
Sep
10

critica al hedging convencional

Condor Options tiene un post donde explica los problemas del hedging clasico, tomando como ejemplos a la diversificación y al seguro de portfolio (put y collars).

Portfolio insurance strategies were developed in the late 1970s and early 1980s to provide institutional investors with a guaranteed return and reduced uncertainty, and coincided with the creation of options exchanges. See Bouyé 2009 for an overview of the history and types of portfolio insurance. I’ve tested three such strategies here:

  1. Long ATM 1-year puts: Given a starting $500,000 portfolio allocated to the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY), buy at-the-money (ATM) put options expiring in one year and hold through expiration. Rebalance the SPY shares after expiration to account for any realized gains or losses, and re-hedge.
  2. Long 10% OTM puts: Given a starting $500,000 portfolio allocated to the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY), buy 3-month put options with a strike price 10% below the current SPY price and hold through expiration. Rebalance the SPY shares after expiration to account for any realized gains or losses, and re-hedge.
  3. Zero-cost collars: Given a starting $500,000 portfolio allocated to the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY), buy 3-month zero-cost collars with a long put strike price 10% below the current SPY price and a short call strike price set at the highest level that brings in sufficient credit to offset the price of the put. Hold through expiration. Rebalance the SPY shares after expiration to account for any realized gains or losses, and re-hedge.

17
Jun
10

no abusar de los ETFs

Es lo que propone un post de Morningstar (que casualmente provee reportes sobre ETFs, hay ¿PR?).  Más alla de ello tiene puntos que valen ser reproducidos, como el siguiente argumento de escala

While the ETF is quickly replacing the mutual fund for stock indexes, the same is not true for bond indexes. While the stock market is highly liquid and stock prices almost never go stale, this is not true in fixed-income markets. Bonds often trade infrequently, and transactions still are largely conducted over the telephone. Perhaps more importantly, the asymmetric return pattern on bonds demands proper diversification. With bonds, the maximum upside we can expect is capped at maturity as a bond will pay only par plus the coupon. But if the bond defaults, the downside can be 100%. Thus bonds returns exhibit a negative skew. Just one default could cause a bond portfolio to underperform. Whereas active stock fund managers prefer more nimble, smaller portfolios, bond fund managers require the economies of scale of larger funds. Thus smaller bond ETFs may not be able to reach the scale necessary to achieve diversification.

22
Mar
10

Paper: Correlación y Diversificación

Is the Potential for International Diversification Disappearing?

Abstract:
Since understanding and quantifying the evolution of security co-movements is critical for asset pricing and portfolio allocation, we investigate patterns and trends in correlations over time using weekly returns for large systems of developed markets (DMs) and emerging markets (EMs) during the period 1973-2009. We use the DECO, DCC, and BEKK correlation models, and develop a novel dynamic t-copula which generalizes the normal copula, to allow for dynamic tail dependence. We demonstrate that it is possible to overcome the well known dimensionality problems and compute correlation and tail dependence in international markets using large samples, without relying on factor models. Our results suggest that correlations have been significantly trending upward for both the DMs and EMs. Further, the evidence clearly contradicts the decoupling hypothesis. Although the tail dependence is increasing through time for both EMs and DMs, the level of the tail dependence is still very low at the end of our sample period for EMs as compared to DMs. Therefore, while the correlation analysis suggests that the diversification potential of EMs has largely disappeared, this is contradicted by our findings on tail dependence. Thus, even though diversification benefits might have lessened in the case of DMs, the case for EMs remains intact.

Link al Paper

16
Mar
10

Paper: Diversificación y Características

Abstract:
I study long-short portfolio strategies formed on seven different stock characteristics representing various measures of past returns, value, and size. Each individual characteristic results in a profitable portfolio strategy, but these single-characteristic strategies are all dominated by a diversified strategy that places equal weight on each of the single-characteristic strategies. The benefits of diversifying across characteristic-based long-short strategies are substantial and can be attributed to the mostly low, and sometimes substantially negative, correlation between the returns on the single-characteristic strategies.

Link al Paper

08
Mar
10

Paper: Mercados, Diversificación y horizonte temporal

International Diversification Works (in the Long Run)

Abstract:
Investors and financial economists have long debated the benefits of global equity market diversification. Fans argue that diversifying globally reduces portfolio risk without harming long-term return. Some critics counter with the observation that because markets get more correlated during downturns, most of the diversification occurs on the upside when you do not need it, and vanishes on the downside when you do. Certainly, recent events give support to the critics as all markets have suffered. We argue that this observation, while true, misses the big picture. International diversification might not protect you from terrible days, months, or even years, but over longer horizons (which should be more important to investors) where underlying economic growth matters more to returns than short-lived panics or global coordinated events, it protects you quite well.

Link al Paper




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