Posts Tagged ‘inflacion

09
May
11

Paper: Commodity e inflación

Do Commodity Price Spikes Cause Long-Term Inflation?

Abstract:
This public policy brief examines the relationship between trend inflation and commodity price
increases and finds that evidence from recent decades supports the notion that commodity price 
changes do not affect the long-run inflation rate. Evidence from earlier decades suggests that 
effects on inflation expectations and wages played a key role in whether commodity price 
movements altered trend inflation.  This brief  is based on a  memo  to the  president of the 
Federal Reserve Bank of Boston as background to a meeting of the Federal Open Market
Committee.
Link al Paper
14
Mar
11

Infograma du Jour: Tasa e inflación en Asia

(Fuente: Bloomberg Business Week)

26
Nov
10

Una Galería de Gráficos

Es lo que tiene el excelente blog Calculated Risk. Tratan solo sobre la Economía de Estados Unidos, pero aún así hay variedad para todos los gustos. Vale la pena una recorrida, para un poco de perspectiva.

21
Nov
10

Paper: Keynes, deuda y trampa de liquidez

Debt, Deleveraging, and the Liquidity Trap

In this paper we present a simple New Keynesian-style model of debt-driven slumps – that is, situations in which an overhang of debt on the part of some agents, who are forced into rapid deleveraging, is depressing aggregate demand. Making some agents debt-constrained is a surprisingly powerful assumption: Fisherian debt deflation, the possibility of a liquidity trap, the paradox of thrift, a Keynesian-type multiplier, and a rationale for expansionary fiscal policy all emerge naturally from the model. We argue that this approach sheds considerable light both on current economic difficulties and on historical episodes, including Japan’s lost decade (now in its 18th year) and the Great Depression itself.

Link al Paper

13
Nov
10

Video: La mejor explicación sobre “Quantitative Easing”

(Fuente: Credit Writedowns, via Felix Salmon)

___________________

UPDATE: Un transcript con Econbrowser como interlocutor invitado.

12
Nov
10

The Billion Price Proyect

Via The Big Picture, me cruce con The Billion Prices Project del MIT. Como explica su sitio, es una iniciativa académica que recolecta precios de comercios online alrededor del mundo en una base diaria.

En la actualidad monitorea más de 5 millones de productos vendidos en 300 tiendas online de 7o países (Argentina incluida con 12 locales y 160,000 productos). Las series empiezan en octubre de 2007. Lo bueno es que explican su metodología. Lo malo que hay sesgo o “mala representación” (solo cubre online shopping).

 

 

 

02
Sep
10

Paper: Regla de Taylor y prediccion de retornos

Stock Return Predictability and the Taylor Rule

Abstract:
The paper uses real-time data to show that inflation and output gap, the variables that typically enter Taylor rules for interest rate setting, can provide evidence of out-of-sample predictability for stock returns from 1969 to 2008. In addition to out-of-sample tests that are based on mean squared prediction error comparisons, we test for the dependence of stock returns on Taylor rule predictors using the information about the whole distribution. The evidence is robust to using various measures of output gap and window sizes. Investor can time the market using Taylor rule fundamentals and generate higher utility.

Link al Paper

14
Jul
10

Paper: Graduarse de un patrón de Crisis

On Graduation from Default, Inflation and Banking Crisis: Elusive or Illusion?

Abstract

This paper uses a data set of over two hundred years of sovereign debt, banking and inflation crises to explore the question of how long it takes a country to “graduate” from the typical pattern of serial crisis that most emerging markets experience. We find that for default and inflation crises, twenty years is a significant market, but the distribution of recidivism has extremely fat tails. In the case of banking crises, it is unclear whether countries ever graduate. We also examine the more recent phenomenon of IMF programs, which sometimes result in “near misses” but sometimes end in default even after a program is instituted. The paper raises the important theoretical question of why countries experience serial default, and how they might graduate.

Link al Paper

11
Jun
10

Gráfico du Jour: Inflación USA en el tiempo

(Fuente: Inflation Data, via Nuestro Corresponsal en NY: Lu Cipolina)

11
Mar
10

Paper: Deuda, Default, Inflación

From Financial Crash to Debt Crisis

Newly developed long historical time series on public debt, along with modern data on external debts, allow a deeper analysis of the cycles underlying serial debt and banking crises. The evidence confirms a strong link between banking crises and sovereign default across the economic history of great many countries, advanced and emerging alike. The focus of the analysis is on three related hypotheses tested with both “world” aggregate levels and on an individual country basis. First, private debt surges are a recurring antecedent to banking crises; governments quite contribute to this stage of the borrowing boom. Second, banking crises (both domestic ones and those emanating from international financial centers) often precede or accompany sovereign debt crises. Indeed, we find they help predict them. Third, public borrowing accelerates markedly ahead of a sovereign debt crisis; governments often have “hidden debts” that far exceed the better documented levels of external debt. These hidden debts encompass domestic public debts (which prior to our data were largely undocumented).

Link al Paper




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