Posts Tagged ‘informacion

03
Oct
11

Paper: Información privilegiada

Decoding Inside Information

Abstract

Exploiting the fact that insiders trade for a variety of reasons, we show that there is  predictable, identifiable “routine” insider trading that is not informative for the future  of firms. A portfolio strategy that focuses solely on the remaining “opportunistic”  traders yields value-weighted abnormal returns of 82 basis points per month, while  abnormal returns associated with routine traders are essentially zero. The most informed opportunistic traders are local, non-executive insiders from geographically concentrated, poorly governed firms. Opportunistic traders are significantly more likely to have SEC enforcement action taken against them, and reduce trading following waves of SEC insider trading enforcement.

Link al Paper


			
10
May
11

Como hacer dinero en microsegundos (1µs)…

…Ese es nombre de un articulo escrito por Donald MacKenzie. En el cual explora la transición hacia el trading electronico, algoritmico y de alta frecuencia. Explica muy detalladamente el Flash Crash. Y referencia varios algoritmos utilizados para hacer hacer plata (VWAP, spoofing). El unico pecado del texto: su longitud.

(…)

The trigger was indeed an algorithm, but not one of the sophisticated ultra-fast high-frequency trading programs. It was a simple ‘volume participation’ algorithm, and while the official investigation does not name the firm that deployed it, market participants seem convinced that it was the Kansas City investment managers Waddell & Reed. The firm’s goal was to protect the value of a large position in the stock market against further declines, and it did this by programming the algorithm to sell 75,000 index future contracts. (These contracts track the S&P 500 stock-market index, and each contract was equivalent to shares worth a total of around $55,000. The seller of index futures makes money if the underlying index falls; the buyer gains if it rises.) The volume participation algorithm calculated the number of index futures contracts that had been traded over the previous minute, sold 9 per cent of that volume, and kept going until the full 75,000 had been sold. The total sell order, worth around $4.1 billion, was unusually large, though not unprecedented: the SEC/CFTC investigators found two efforts in the previous year to sell the same or larger quantities of futures in a single day. But the pace of the sales on 6 May was very fast.

(…)

Por ultimo, en el escrito se habla de un paper de Hasbrouck y Saar, creo que es este.

01
May
11

Datos, Documentación y Conocimiento

Parece ser lo que proponen -en distinta prosa- Shiller y de Soto para prevenir futuras debacles económicas. O por lo menos, suavizarlas.

Posturas como estas alimentan el debate sobre la economía de la información.

Vale rescatar frases como tales:

“TODAY, our prosperity depends on finance, and on its associated disciplines of accounting and macroeconomics.” (Shiller)

“If we can agree that the recession wasn’t about bubbles but about the organization of knowledge, we can move on to restoring the systems that allowed the global economy to expand more in the last 60 years than in the previous 2,000” (de Soto)

13
Dec
10

Humor du Jour: Opinologos

(Fuente: http://www.nbtrades.com, via Cosas que Pasan)

14
Nov
10

Paper: Factor Geográfico en el Arbitraje Estadístico

Relativistic statistical arbitrage

Recent advances in high-frequency financial trading have made light propagation delays between geographically separated exchanges relevant. Here we show that there exist optimal locations from which to coordinate the statistical arbitrage of pairs of spacelike separated securities, and calculate a representative map of such locations on Earth. Furthermore, trading local securities along chains of such intermediate locations results ina novel econophysical effect, in which the relativistic propagation of tradable information is effectively slowedor stopped by arbitrage.

Link al Paper

20
Sep
10

Paper: Twitter y los bid-ask spreads

Can Firms Now Act as Their Own Information Intermediaries? The Role of Direct-Access Information Technology in Disseminating Firm News

Abstract

Recent research indicates that press-based dissemination of firm-initiated information plays a critical role in the effectiveness of the disclosure (Bushee et al., 2010; Soltes, 2010). However, traditional information intermediaries, such as the press, face constraints on the amount of news they can disseminate to investors. This paper examines whether firms can complement traditional dissemination channels by using new information technology that provides firms direct access to a broad set of investors on a real-time basis. Using a sample of technology firms with active Twitter accounts, we find that postings (tweets) increase around firm-initiated news events. This increase is primarily driven by tweets containing hyperlinks, which is consistent with firms using this innovative technology to disseminate firm news. We also find that greater tweeting during news event windows is associated with lower bid-ask spreads and greater depths. These relations are stronger for tweets with hyperlinks. We also find our results are more pronounced for firms with lower visibility—that is, firms that are smaller, have lower analyst coverage and have fewer shareholders. These findings suggest that managers use this new direct-access information technology to reduce information asymmetry, particularly for those firms that are arguably most in need.

Link al Paper

29
Apr
10

Paper: Inversores e información asimetrica

Do Individual Investors Have Asymmetric Information Based on Work Experience?

Abstract:     
Using a novel dataset covering all individual investors’ stock market transactions in Norway over a 10-year period, we analyze whether individual investors have a preference for professionally close stocks, and whether they make an excess return on such investments. After excluding own-company and previous employer stock, investors hold on average 11 % of their portfolio in stocks within their two-digit industry of employment. Given the poor hedging properties of professionally close stocks, one would expect such investments to be associated with asymmetric information and abnormally high returns. In contrast, all our estimates of abnormal returns are negative, in many cases statistically significant. Overconfidence seems the most likely explanation for why individuals excessively trade in professionally close stocks.

Link al Paper

19
Apr
10

Supongamos que….

En un postInterfluidity, describe al actual affaire Goldman Abacus, como un caso hipotético. Una interesante forma de analizar los hechos, que empieza asi:

Let’s suppose there is a trader, whom we’ll call “Trader X”. Trader X wishes to take a very large position on a bunch of related and correlated financial instruments. But Trader X has a problem. The size of the trade he wants to make is large relative to ordinary turnover in the asset. The market would almost surely move against him before he executed more than a fraction of his trades. Market-makers are very sensitive to the balance of order flow. If Trader X starts calling dealers and executing trades, they would observe one-sided flow and quickly adjust the price until trades on the other side were attracted and the flow returned to balance. This “adverse price action” would significantly reduce the profitability and increase the risk of X’s trade. It would also reveal his information or belief about future price movement to the market, enhancing market efficiency perhaps, but reducing his edge.

(…)

Bank Y considers for a moment, and comes up with an idea. “Suppose we start a little investment company up, something like a mutual fund devoted to the kind of positions you want to trade. Since you want to take a ’short’ position, we’ll find a manager enthusiastic about the prospects of the ‘long’ side and help him start this little fund. There are lots of reputable money managers in the world, with a wide variety of views, so we can find somebody excited and capable of running this fund. We have lots of connections among investors, and we are in the business of drumming up interest in new investment vehicles, so there’s a reasonable chance we’ll find people to fund the strategy at a scale large enough to match your trade. Once we do, there will be a natural buyer of what you want to sell, and you can enter the market without impacting prices. In fact, since both you and this fund will use us as market makers, we’ll just cross the trades internally at prevailing prices, and neither you nor the fund will have to worry about adverse price action.”

(…)

15
Apr
10

Paper: Trades, Inversores e información

To Trade or Not to Trade? Informed Trading with High-Frequency Signals for Long-Term Investors

Abstract:
When a long-term investor trades a slowly changing portfolio, she is not very time sensitive to when exactly she should place or change her bet. The value of the embedded optionality provided by this flexibility may be extracted by using high frequency information to choose when to trade (exercise the option). Mechanically, if the short-term view concurs with the trade, then the trade is placed. Otherwise, the investor waits for a more favorable environment. Strategic trade modification provides exposure to short-term signals without having to pay additional transaction costs and with no capacity limits. We implement our trading approach (Informed Trading) on real and simulated portfolios to illustrate its effect on portfolio performance. We show that realistic portfolios can achieve a five percent exposure to a high frequency signal. Long-term investors should no longer ignore high frequency information just because it is too expensive to trade on.

Link al Paper

02
Apr
10

Paper: Información y Retornos

Style Migration and the Cross-Section of Average Stock Returns

Abstract:
Stocks experiencing sharp changes in their style characteristics present unique opportunities to examine how investors view style information in making their portfolio allocation decisions. We examine the average returns of such stocks – which we call “style migrants” – and the covariation of the returns of style migrants with same-style stocks to provide new insight into the way investors use equity style information. Our results indicate that investors strongly judge a stock by its style, even when other information indicates that they should not do so. Specifically, we find that stocks experiencing large levels of variability in their size, book-to-market, and momentum characteristics during the prior five years significantly outperform, during the following year, other stocks with more style stability; thus, investors appear to penalize style risk by requiring higher future returns. In addition, these high style risk stocks covary much more with their new style cohorts than other low style risk stocks that have also moved into the same new style category – This is consistent with investors overreacting to style shifts with high style risk stocks, while exhibiting a “style memory” effect for low style-risk stocks. In further tests, we find some evidence that low-skill mutual fund managers tend to exhibit “style-chasing” behavior, and that their trades are correlated with contemporaneous abnormal returns of style migrants – consistent with their trades affecting migrant returns. Overall, our paper provides new evidence about investor behavior by demonstrating that some investors appear to overweight style information when allocating their portfolios, especially for certain high style-risk stocks.

Link al Paper




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"It is hard to be finite upon an infinite subject, and all subjects are infinite." Herman Melville

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