Posts Tagged ‘Twitter

16
Nov
10

Cuando vender…

Trade to Learn tiene un breve post sobre cuando es conveniente salirse de una posición. Personalmente, me quedo con:

(…)

If you find yourself asking asking the “experts” on twitter or on blogs about your positions, its best to sell it right now and move on.

(…)

15
Oct
10

Paper: Twitter como predictor

Twitter mood predicts the stock market

Abstract

Behavioral economics tells us that emotions canprofoundly affect individual behavior and decision-making. Doesthis also apply to societies at large, i.e. can societies experiencemood states that affect their collective decision making? Byextension is the public mood correlated or even predictive ofeconomic indicators? Here we investigate whether measurementsof collective mood states derived from large-scale Twitter feedsare correlated to the value of the Dow Jones Industrial Average(DJIA) over time. We analyze the text content of daily Twitterfeeds by two mood tracking tools, namely OpinionFinder thatmeasures positive vs. negative mood and Google-Profile of MoodStates (GPOMS) that measures mood in terms of 6 dimensions(Calm, Alert, Sure, Vital, Kind, and Happy). We cross-validatethe resulting mood time series by comparing their ability todetect the public’s response to the presidential election andThanksgiving day in 2008. A Granger causality analysis anda Self-Organizing Fuzzy Neural Network are then used toinvestigate the hypothesis that public mood states, as measured bythe OpinionFinder and GPOMS mood time series, are predictiveof changes in DJIA closing values. Our results indicate that theaccuracy of DJIA predictions can be significantly improved bythe inclusion of specific public mood dimensions but not others.We find an accuracy of 87.6% in predicting the daily up anddown changes in the closing values of the DJIA and a reductionof the Mean Average Percentage Error by more than 6%.

Link al Paper

________________

Update: ETF Central propone el debate.

20
Sep
10

Paper: Twitter y los bid-ask spreads

Can Firms Now Act as Their Own Information Intermediaries? The Role of Direct-Access Information Technology in Disseminating Firm News

Abstract

Recent research indicates that press-based dissemination of firm-initiated information plays a critical role in the effectiveness of the disclosure (Bushee et al., 2010; Soltes, 2010). However, traditional information intermediaries, such as the press, face constraints on the amount of news they can disseminate to investors. This paper examines whether firms can complement traditional dissemination channels by using new information technology that provides firms direct access to a broad set of investors on a real-time basis. Using a sample of technology firms with active Twitter accounts, we find that postings (tweets) increase around firm-initiated news events. This increase is primarily driven by tweets containing hyperlinks, which is consistent with firms using this innovative technology to disseminate firm news. We also find that greater tweeting during news event windows is associated with lower bid-ask spreads and greater depths. These relations are stronger for tweets with hyperlinks. We also find our results are more pronounced for firms with lower visibility—that is, firms that are smaller, have lower analyst coverage and have fewer shareholders. These findings suggest that managers use this new direct-access information technology to reduce information asymmetry, particularly for those firms that are arguably most in need.

Link al Paper




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