Posts Tagged ‘pricing

11
Oct
11

Paper: Una vuelta por el mundo…

Equity Premia Around the World

Abstract: 
We update our global evidence on the long-term realized equity risk premium, relative to both bills and bonds, in 19 different countries. Our study now runs from 1900 to the start of 2011. While there is considerable variation across countries, the realized equity risk premium was substantial everywhere. For our 19-country World index, over the entire 111 years, geometric mean real returns were an annualized 5.5%; the equity premium relative to Treasury bills was an annualized 4.5%; and the equity premium relative to long-term government bonds was an annualized 3.8%. The expected equity premium is lower, around 3% to 3½% on an annualized basis.

Link al Paper

03
Oct
11

Paper: Equity Yields

Equity Yields

Abstract
We study a new data set of prices of traded dividends with maturities up to 10 years across three world regions: the US, Europe, and Japan. We use these asset prices to construct equity yields, analogous to bond yields. We decompose these yields to obtain a term structure of expected dividend growth rates and a term structure of risk premia, which allows us to decompose the equity risk premium by maturity. We find that both expected dividend growth rates and risk premia exhibit substantial variation over time, particularly for short maturities. In addition to predicting dividend growth, equity yields help predict other measures of economic growth such as consumption growth. We relate the dynamics of growth expectations to recent events such as the financial crisis and the earthquake in Japan.

Link al Paper

03
Oct
11

Paper: Información privilegiada

Decoding Inside Information

Abstract

Exploiting the fact that insiders trade for a variety of reasons, we show that there is  predictable, identifiable “routine” insider trading that is not informative for the future  of firms. A portfolio strategy that focuses solely on the remaining “opportunistic”  traders yields value-weighted abnormal returns of 82 basis points per month, while  abnormal returns associated with routine traders are essentially zero. The most informed opportunistic traders are local, non-executive insiders from geographically concentrated, poorly governed firms. Opportunistic traders are significantly more likely to have SEC enforcement action taken against them, and reduce trading following waves of SEC insider trading enforcement.

Link al Paper



																
14
Sep
11

Fun & Finance: #14, Charla sobre Mercado

En esta ocasión, German le ofrece a Gaston un pantallazo como mirar las conexiones dentro del mercado financiero.

Siempre mejor en HD.

No se olviden de LIKE THIS !!

07
Sep
11

Paper: Diversificación, rebalanceo como soluciones…

Diversification Return, Portfolio Rebalancing, and the Commodity Return Puzzle

Diversification return is an incremental return earned by a rebalanced portfolio of assets. The diversification return of a rebalanced portfolio is often incorrectly ascribed to a reduction in variance. We argue that the underlying source of the diversification return is the rebalancing, which forces the investor to sell assets that have appreciated in relative value and buy assets that have declined in relative value, as measured by their weights in the portfolio. In contrast, the incremental return of a buy-and-hold portfolio is driven by the fact that the assets that perform the best become a greater fraction of the portfolio. We use these results to resolve two puzzles associated with the Gorton and Rouwenhorst index of commodity futures, and thereby obtain a clear understanding of the source of the return of that index. Diversification return can be a significant source of return for any rebalanced portfolio of volatile assets.

Link al Paper

28
Mar
11

Paper: Pricing y Modelo estructural de Credito

Stochastic evolution equations in portfolio credit modelling

Abstract

We consider a structural credit model for a large portfolio of credit risky assets where the correlation is due to a market factor. By considering the large portfolio limit of this system we show the existence of a density process for the asset values. This density evolves according to a stochastic partial differential equation and we establish existence and uniqueness for thesolution taking values in a suitable function space. The loss function of the portfolio is then a function of the evolution of this density at the default boundary. We develop numerical methods for pricing and calibration of the model to credit indices and consider its performance pre and post credit crunch.

Link al Paper

01
Sep
10

Paper: ETNs pricing, un rompecabeza

The Indicative Value – Price Puzzle in ETNs: Liquidity Constraints, Information Signaling, or an Ineffective System for Share Creation?

Abstract:
The prices of ETNs often significantly exceed their indicative values. Since ETNs share many features in common with zero-coupon bonds, this empirical finding is unexpected. (Adopting the language of Wright, Diavatopoulos, and Felton (2010), we refer to this as the negative WDFD puzzle.) Using a sample of 93 ETNs over the period June 6, 2006 to December 31, 2009, we explore three possible explanations for the negative WDFD puzzle. We find that the puzzle is not a result of liquidity constraints. In fact, increased trading volume is mildly correlated with more extreme mispricing in ETNs. We also find that ETN prices significantly exceeding their corresponding indicative values do not possess information about the future prospects of the asset, commodity, or index tied to the ETN. Instead, we conclude that the negative WDFD puzzle is the result of (1) uninformed, return-chasing investors and (2) an ineffective current system for creating new shares of existing ETNs. To work towards eliminating the negative WDFD puzzle, we recommend that ETN issuers restructure their systems for creating new ETN shares by allowing profit-motivated investors to initiate the process of share creation as they identify extreme mispricing in the market place.

Link al Paper




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"It is hard to be finite upon an infinite subject, and all subjects are infinite." Herman Melville

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